A historic stock market debut is imminent, and crypto is part of the same liquidity pool that will be drawn upon. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
This could lead to the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. Polymarket traders predict a 65% chance of a June listing and a 53% chance that the first-day closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion. SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the three companies potentially pulling in over $240 billion from June to the end of the year.
This capital pull is larger than every venture-backed US IPO since 2000 combined, and crypto is at risk of being affected. The liquidity that has been supporting bitcoin and crypto may be drained, as the same capital that is driving the crypto market is also being drawn into these IPOs. Bitcoin, ether, and other major cryptocurrencies have been trading with increasing correlation to the Nasdaq and S&P 500, and when speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, some of that capital may also leave the crypto market.
The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021 is a cause for concern, as it marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, followed by a 50% drawdown. The lesson is that institutional milestones often mark the top of a cycle rather than the beginning.
SpaceX's IPO has two features that connect directly to crypto flows: the 30% retail allocation, which is three times the typical retail share, and the company's holding of 8,285 BTC worth roughly $600 million. The testable signal going forward is whether crypto can hold up through the roadshow window in May and June or will begin to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription. A bitcoin rally that extends through the roadshow suggests that the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows.