A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering anticipated to take place in June, potentially drawing interest away from the crypto market. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, seeking to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This would surpass the record set by Saudi Aramco's $29 billion IPO in 2019, making it the largest stock market debut in history.
Polymarket traders predict a 65% chance of the IPO occurring in June and a 53% chance that the first-day closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion. SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the three companies potentially raising over $240 billion from June to the end of the year.
This massive capital pull could lead to a decrease in liquidity, affecting not only the stock market but also the crypto market, as they share the same risk-on liquidity pool. The correlation between bitcoin, ether, and other major cryptocurrencies with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 has been increasing over the past two cycles, suggesting that a decrease in speculative capital in equities could also impact the crypto market. Historical data shows that institutional milestones, such as the Coinbase IPO in 2021, can mark the beginning of a downturn in the crypto market.
The SpaceX IPO, with its 30% retail allocation and significant bitcoin holdings, could have a similar effect. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether the crypto market can withstand the impending IPOs or if it will be negatively impacted by the shift in liquidity.