The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a period of calm, with Bitcoin hovering just below $77,000 on Wednesday, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability is notable, given the significant movements in other markets, including Brent crude, which has pushed above $111 a barrel following reports that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has described its current state as one of "collapse," according to Trump, while Tehran has indicated it may be willing to accept an interim deal to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. In contrast to Bitcoin's stability, other major cryptocurrencies have experienced declines, with Ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, and Solana losing 3.2% to $84.57.
The exception is dogecoin, which has seen a 5.5% increase to $0.1016, making it the only top-10 token outside stablecoins to experience growth over the past week. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is slowly increasing, a trend that often occurs when macroeconomic stress leads to capital flowing into the largest asset. According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative calm is indicative of a shift in market structure, with the supply overhang having dried up and sellers who were spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears having already exited the market.
Ebtikar notes that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than many people think, and its sensitivity is primarily driven by wider market volatility. With the current trading range being relatively quiet, there is no immediate pressure to sell. From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, below which the upward range that has held since late March could break, potentially leading to further downside.
On the other hand, a reversal back toward $80,000 would maintain the rally structure and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts to advance since February. The upcoming Fed rate decision, scheduled for later on Wednesday, and the ECB's decision on Thursday, will be closely watched by traders, as will the US equity market, which sold off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure.
The price of Brent crude has been volatile, but remains elevated near $111, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be monitoring whether Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock, and if Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is gone, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines until a new selling pressure emerges.