Research has shown that a small group of traders may be influencing prediction markets, but an even smaller group is accumulating the majority of the profits. A recent report by blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs discovered that profit distribution on Polymarket is highly skewed, with less than 1% of wallets capturing approximately half of all gains in key markets. Between December 2025 and February 2026, a mere 0.55% of profitable maker wallets and 0.26% of winning taker wallets accounted for roughly 50% of the gains, translating to around $8 million out of $16 million in profits.
This data reinforces previous academic findings that a small minority of traders drives most price movements. The report highlights that this concentration of profits does not necessarily imply wrongdoing, but rather suggests a significant disparity between a small group of sophisticated traders and the broader user base.
The study also identified signs of wash trading, with approximately 15% of volume in some markets exhibiting patterns consistent with self-trading or economically neutral positions. Solidus Labs' research emphasizes the need for surveillance infrastructure to monitor such activities, although it is essential to consider the firm's potential bias as a vendor of market surveillance platforms.