A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering just six weeks away, and it's expected to have a significant impact on the crypto market. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. The offering is expected to draw interest from investors, potentially diverting attention and capital away from crypto assets. SpaceX is not alone in its plans, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also preparing for public listings, with estimated valuations of nearly $1 trillion and over $60 billion, respectively.
The combined capital raise of these three companies could exceed $240 billion from June to the end of the year, a figure that surpasses the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. This massive influx of capital could lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially triggering a bearish market for equities and impacting crypto prices. As crypto assets are closely tied to the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities, a significant outflow of capital from these markets could have a negative impact on bitcoin and other digital assets.
The historical parallel with Coinbase's listing in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, serves as a warning that institutional milestones can often signal tops rather than starting lines. With SpaceX's IPO expected to have a significant retail allocation and the company holding a material bitcoin position, the testable signal will be whether crypto can hold up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.