The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a mixed trend, with bitcoin displaying minimal movement despite significant fluctuations in other assets. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over the past 24 hours and a 0.8% decline over the week. This stability is notable, given that Brent crude oil has surpassed $111 per barrel following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has instructed his aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In response to the situation, Iran has stated that the country is on the verge of collapse, while Tehran has indicated that it may consider an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports.
Other major cryptocurrencies, such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB, have experienced declines, with Ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, Solana losing 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shedding 2.3% to $625. In contrast, dogecoin has seen a 5.5% increase over the week, reaching $0.1016, making it the only top-10 token outside stablecoins to exhibit a positive trend over the past seven days.
As a result, bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a phenomenon often observed during periods of macroeconomic stress when capital flows into the largest asset. According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, bitcoin's relative calmness is indicative of a shift in market structure. Ebtikar noted that the supply overhang has been depleted, and sellers who were previously spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited the market, resulting in a thinner sell-side.
He added that bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than widely perceived, and its sensitivity is primarily driven by broader volatility. With the current trading range being relatively quiet, there is no immediate pressure to exit the market. From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, below which the upward range that has held since late March would be broken, potentially leading to further downside. Conversely, a reversal towards $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure intact and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected bitcoin since February.
The Fed's rate decision, scheduled for later on Wednesday, and the ECB's decision on Thursday, will be closely watched by traders. The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure, although Nasdaq 100 futures have rebounded 0.4% in Asian hours. Brent crude oil prices have fluctuated between gains and losses but remain elevated near $111, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions.
Traders will be monitoring whether bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is no longer present, and bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines until a fresh leg of selling is triggered. However, if the assessment is incorrect, the $75,000 level may be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget may unfold as anticipated.