Recent findings indicate that a small minority of traders may be driving the markets, but an even smaller group is reaping most of the financial rewards. According to a report by blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs, profit concentration on Polymarket is exceptionally high, with less than 1% of wallets capturing around half of all gains in key markets. Between December 2025 and February 2026, a mere 0.55% of profitable maker wallets and 0.26% of winning taker wallets accounted for nearly half of the profits, translating to approximately $8 million out of $16 million in gains. This data supports previous academic research suggesting that a small group of traders drives price discovery.
The report highlights a significant imbalance, with a small group of traders operating with substantial advantages, including greater capital, better infrastructure, and more effective execution strategies. While this does not necessarily imply wrongdoing, it does suggest a structural divide between this small group and the broader base of participants. The study also raises concerns about wash trading, with around 15% of volume in some markets exhibiting patterns consistent with self-trading or economically neutral positions. As the report's findings are based on verifiable on-chain data, they underscore the need for surveillance infrastructure in prediction markets.