A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's $75 billion IPO expected to draw significant interest and potentially disrupt the crypto market. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $1.75 trillion valuation. If successful, this IPO will be the largest in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019.
SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with estimated valuations of $1 trillion and $60 billion, respectively. The combined capital raise of over $240 billion from June to year-end could exceed the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000, according to PitchBook.
This massive influx of capital may lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially impacting the crypto market. Crypto assets, including bitcoin and ether, have traded in correlation with the Nasdaq and S&P 500, and a significant allocation of capital to these IPOs could lead to a decrease in liquidity for crypto. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern.
Traders who invested in crypto following Coinbase's listing experienced a 50% drawdown within six weeks. The SpaceX IPO's 30% retail allocation and the company's significant bitcoin holdings could also impact crypto flows. As the roadshow window approaches in May and June, it will be crucial to monitor whether crypto holds up or begins to drift lower as allocators prepare for the SpaceX subscription.