Roundhill Investments is poised to introduce the first US exchange-traded funds tied to prediction markets, with the launch of six funds that track the potential control of the White House, Senate, and House by Democrats or Republicans. According to SEC filings, these funds will be listed on May 5, as confirmed by Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart. The funds in question are the Roundhill Democratic President ETF, Republican President ETF, Democratic Senate ETF, Republican Senate ETF, Democratic House ETF, and Republican House ETF.

The House and Senate products are linked to the outcome of the November 3, 2026 elections, while the presidential products are tied to the November 7, 2028 election. Exposure is gained through swap agreements referencing binary event contracts traded on CFTC-regulated markets, which settle at $1 if the outcome occurs and $0 if it does not.

A warning in the prospectus cautions that if the targeted party does not win, the fund will lose nearly all its value. Roundhill has no plans to terminate the funds after settlement; instead, once the market prices a winner at above $0.995 or below $0.005 for five consecutive trading days, the fund treats the outcome as decided and rolls into the next cycle.

The prospectus also notes that if the market is later proved wrong, there will be no recourse for shareholders. Other companies, such as Bitwise and GraniteShares, have filed similar proposals, with Bitwise using a 'PredictionShares' brand and differing structures in terms of fund termination and rollover. Currently, political event contracts are traded on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, but the introduction of ETFs could expand access by allowing them to be held in regular brokerage accounts and some retirement accounts. This development comes after the CFTC withdrew a proposal that would have banned political event contracts, although state regulators in several states continue to challenge these contracts in court.

Roundhill has also filed to list non-political prediction market ETFs tied to the possibility of a US recession.