A historic stock market debut is approaching, with SpaceX's initial public offering expected to take place in June. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. This massive influx of capital could potentially drain the liquidity that has been supporting the rise of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the three companies potentially raising over $240 billion from June to the end of the year.
This could lead to a significant shift in market dynamics, with crypto sitting in the same liquidity pool as these tech and AI equities. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern. Traders who invested in Coinbase's IPO saw mainstream capital rotate out of crypto over the next six months, resulting in a 50% drawdown. The lesson learned is that institutional milestones often mark the top of a cycle rather than the starting line.
With SpaceX's IPO on the horizon, the question remains whether crypto will hold up or begin to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription. The 30% retail allocation of SpaceX's IPO, roughly $22 billion, is also a significant factor, as this money will not be available to bid on cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, SpaceX's disclosed bitcoin position, worth approximately $600 million, makes its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin holding under the new fair-value accounting rules. The testable signal going forward will be whether crypto can maintain its value during the roadshow window in May and June or if it will begin to decline as investors prepare for the SpaceX subscription.