Despite Bitcoin's recent 15% surge this month, some experts remain skeptical that the cryptocurrency has escaped the bear market that began in October, given it still lingers 40% below its all-time high. Some forecasters predict a potential decline to as low as $40,000, a staggering 70% drop from its peak. Bitcoin analyst James Check deems such a scenario unlikely, describing it as statistically extraordinary, albeit not impossible.
Check references the Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index, which combines multiple key metrics, including the 200-week moving average and volume-weighted average price measures, to rank Bitcoin's price historically. At $40,000, Bitcoin would register as a 0.4th percentile event, indicating an extremely rare occurrence.
This would be equivalent to Bitcoin trading below $2 in 2011 on a relative basis. In contrast, the current price sits around the 31.5th percentile, historically weak but within normal correction ranges. Check notes that while no market outcome has zero probability, a $40,000 price point would be nearly unprecedented.