Research suggests that a small number of traders are dominating prediction markets, with an even smaller group reaping most of the financial rewards. According to a recent report by Solidus Labs, a blockchain analytics firm, the concentration of profits on Polymarket is stark, with fewer than 1% of wallets accounting for roughly half of all gains in key markets. Between December 2025 and February 2026, just 0.55% of profitable maker wallets and 0.26% of winning taker wallets captured around 50% of gains, translating to approximately $8 million out of $16 million in profits.
This data reinforces previous findings that a small minority of traders drives price discovery, with around 3% of Polymarket traders responsible for most price movements. The report highlights that this concentration of wealth does not necessarily imply wrongdoing, but rather that some traders have significant advantages, including greater sophistication, better capitalization, and faster access to information. However, the scale of the imbalance suggests a structural divide between a small group of traders operating with significant advantages and the broader base of participants.
The report also identifies signs of wash trading, with around 15% of volume in some markets exhibiting patterns consistent with self-trading or economically neutral positions. While some of this volume may be driven by incentive farming rather than manipulation, the report argues that the numbers underscore the need for surveillance infrastructure to monitor and regulate these markets.