The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a unique scenario where Bitcoin is holding steady, despite the surrounding volatility. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, the largest cryptocurrency hovered just below $77,000, marking a minimal 0.1% increase over the past 24 hours and a 0.8% decline over the week. This stability is notable, especially as Brent crude oil prices exceeded $111 per barrel following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In response to the escalating situation, Iran has described its current state as one of "collapse," according to Trump's statements on Truth Social.
Tehran, however, has hinted at the possibility of accepting an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade on Iranian ports. Among other major cryptocurrencies, Ether saw a 2.6% weekly decline to $2,310, XRP fell 3.8% to $1.39, Solana dropped 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB lost 2.3% to $625.
The only exception was Dogecoin, which experienced a 5.5% weekly increase to $0.1016, making it the sole top-10 token, excluding stablecoins, to show gains over the seven-day period. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a trend that often occurs when macroeconomic stress leads to capital flowing into the largest asset. Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, noted in a statement that Bitcoin's relative calmness is indicative of a shift in market structure.
"The excess supply has been absorbed, and sellers who were deterred by macroeconomic shifts or quantum concerns have already exited, leaving the market with significantly fewer sellers than just a few months ago," Ebtikar explained to CoinDesk via email. "Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory changes or central bank policies than commonly perceived. Its sensitivity is primarily driven by broader market volatility, and given the current quieter trading range, there is no immediate urgency for sellers to exit," he added.
From a technical standpoint, the key levels are more pronounced. Analysts at Bitget identified $75,000 as the critical threshold beyond which the upward range, maintained since late March, would be broken, potentially paving the way for further downside movement. A reversal toward $80,000 from current levels would preserve the rally structure and set the stage for a retest of the resistance level that has consistently rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February.
The Federal Reserve is set to announce its rate decision later on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank on Thursday. The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the returns on artificial intelligence capital expenditures, although Nasdaq 100 futures recovered 0.4% in Asian hours. Brent crude oil prices fluctuated between gains and losses but remained elevated near $111, driven by the blockade reports, thereby increasing pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions.
Traders are likely to monitor whether Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion will hold up against the next macroeconomic shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is accurate, the seller base that capitulated during March and April is no longer present, and Bitcoin's price will be influenced by volatility rather than headlines until a new selling wave is triggered. Conversely, if the assessment is incorrect, the $75,000 threshold may be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget could unfold as predicted.