Research indicates that a small number of traders may be influencing prediction markets, but an even smaller group is accumulating the majority of the profits. A recent report by blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs discovered that profit concentration on Polymarket is severe, with fewer than 1% of wallets capturing roughly half of all gains in key markets.
Between December 2025 and February 2026, just 0.55% of profitable maker wallets captured 50% of gains, while 0.26% of winning taker wallets accounted for nearly the same share, translating to approximately $8 million of about $16 million in profits. This data reinforces the notion that a small minority drives price movements, while an even smaller minority retains the profits. The disparity highlights a crucial point: concentration does not necessarily imply wrongdoing, as some traders may be more sophisticated, better capitalized, or quicker to act on information. However, the report suggests that the scale of the imbalance indicates a structural divide between a small group operating with significant advantages and the broader base of participants.
The study also identified signs of wash trading, with roughly 15% of volume in some markets showing patterns consistent with self-trading or economically neutral positions. Solidus' findings imply that some traders are operating in a different league, with access to capital depth, infrastructure, and execution strategies that are out of reach for most users.