The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a mix of trends, with bitcoin showing minimal movement at just under $77,000 on Wednesday, up 0.1% over 24 hours and down 0.8% on the week. This stability is notable, especially as Brent crude oil has pushed above $111 a barrel following reports that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has warned of a "State of Collapse" according to Trump, while Tehran suggests it may accept an interim deal to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Other major cryptocurrencies have seen losses, with Ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, Solana losing 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shedding 2.3% to $625.
Dogecoin, however, saw a 5.5% increase to $0.1016, the only top-10 token outside stablecoins to show gains over the week. As a result, bitcoin's market dominance is slowly increasing, a common occurrence when macroeconomic stress leads to capital rotation into the largest asset. According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, bitcoin's calm is indicative of a change in market structure. Ebtikar notes that the supply overhang has been depleted, and sellers spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have exited, leaving the market thinner on the sell-side.
He believes bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than perceived, with its sensitivity being a function of wider volatility. With the current quieter trading range, there's no immediate rush for exits. Technically, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical line where the upward range since late March could break, potentially leading to further downside. A reversal towards $80,000 would keep the rally structure intact, setting up a retest of the resistance that has rejected bitcoin since February.
The Fed's rate decision, the ECB's announcement, and the US equity market's reaction to artificial intelligence capital expenditure will be closely watched, alongside the impact of the potential blockade on inflation expectations. Traders will be observing whether bitcoin's supply exhaustion holds against the next macro shock, and if the seller base that capitulated through March and April is indeed gone, with bitcoin trading on volatility rather than headlines until a fresh selling leg is forced.