A historic stock market debut is approaching, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected to take place in June, drawing interest from the same liquidity pool as crypto. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
This would make it the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with valuations nearing $1 trillion and $60 billion, respectively. If all three companies reach the public market on schedule, they would pull in over $240 billion from June to the end of the year, exceeding the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. This massive capital pull is likely to impact crypto markets, as bitcoin, ether, and other major cryptocurrencies have traded with increasing correlation to the Nasdaq and S&P 500 over the past two cycles.
When speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, some of that capital would otherwise be invested in higher-beta assets, including crypto. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern. Institutional milestones often mark the beginning of a decline rather than a rally, as the capital that chases these milestones is the same capital that was previously supporting the asset. SpaceX's IPO is not directly related to crypto, but its 30% retail allocation and material bitcoin position disclosed under new accounting rules make it a significant event for crypto flows.
The testable signal going forward is whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.