Bitcoin has maintained its position above $77,000, following a notable surge to its highest level since early February. The cryptocurrency's 13.6% increase in April puts it on track for its best monthly performance in a year, according to data from CoinGlass. This rebound comes after a prolonged downturn, with crypto markets experiencing their longest losing streak since 2018, marked by consecutive monthly declines from October to February.
The improvement in the macroeconomic landscape, including a strong recovery in US equities with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching record highs, has contributed to this turnaround. Additionally, the supply of Tether's USDT, the largest stablecoin, has grown to nearly $150 billion, with an increase of approximately $5 billion over the past two weeks, following a period of stagnation. This growth in stablecoins, which act as liquidity in crypto markets, is often seen as an indicator of capital flowing into the crypto market, signaling a positive trend for asset prices. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding the Iran war, which have kept oil prices elevated, markets appear to be looking beyond these issues.
According to Jasper de Maere, an OTC trader at Wintermute, "the equities and crypto markets seem to have stopped caring about intricate headlines on the conflict's direction," suggesting a level of fatigue and potential complacency. De Maere notes that strong corporate earnings and resilient equity markets are offsetting concerns about higher energy costs and geopolitical risks. The upcoming FOMC meeting will be a crucial test for bitcoin, which is currently hovering near the top of its trading range, with the $79,000 level proving to be a significant cap as traders take profits. The ability of bitcoin to break through this level will depend on the drivers of the move and the participants involved.
A breakout supported by sustained institutional demand could mark a more durable shift, while a move driven primarily by short covering may fade once momentum cools. The next test will come with the April Fed meeting, which could determine whether the current rally holds. If ETF inflows continue through this event, the $79,000 level could transition from resistance to support, opening the door for a higher trading range. Conversely, if flows fade, bitcoin may slip back into the $75,000–$77,000 range.