The US-driven rally in April is losing steam. The Coinbase Premium, which measures the difference in bitcoin prices between Coinbase and offshore exchanges, has flipped negative for the first time since early April, according to CryptoQuant data.
This metric had been consistently positive from April 8 to April 22, during which time bitcoin rose from $66,000 to nearly $78,000. However, it peaked around April 22 and has been declining since.
As Coinbase is often used as a proxy for US institutional and dollar-based flows, a persistent negative reading suggests that American investors are paying less than the rest of the world, indicating either more aggressive selling or reduced buying activity. On-chain data supports this narrative, with the 7-day sum of bitcoin realized losses spiking to $5.97 billion on April 24 as bitcoin traded near $78,000.
This means that sellers were likely buyers who entered the market at higher prices, between $80,000 and $95,000, in late 2025 and early 2026, and are now using the April bounce as an exit opportunity rather than reentering the market. The decline in the Realized Loss metric, from $5.97 billion on April 24 to $4.7 billion by April 28, suggests that the selling cohort is dwindling. Traders are now watching to see if this trend continues as the underwater supply is worked through.