Bitcoin Bulls Face Hurdles in Quest to Surpass $80,000

After reaching above $79,000 earlier in the week, Bitcoin has pulled back to $76,500 from $75,763.45, halting its rally from late March's lows below $65,000. However, recent economic data suggests that a rapid return to form may not be on the horizon. The University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers revealed a record-low consumer sentiment index of 49.8, driven largely by inflation concerns related to the Iran conflict. Inflation expectations have also surged, with the one-year gauge rising to 4.8% and long-term expectations reaching 3.5%, the highest since October 2025. This sharp increase could limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates or ease liquidity, as it may reinforce inflationary pressures. As a result, this hawkish stance could cap gains in BTC and other risk assets. Analysts at Bitfinex note that the long-term expectations move is the more critical data point for the Federal Reserve, and a shift of this size raises the bar for any near-term easing pivot. The Fed is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate between 3.5% and 3.75% this Wednesday. Meanwhile, traders are pricing in a potential Bank of Japan rate increase in June. On the crypto side, sustained ETF inflows are crucial for supporting spot BTC on dips. Coordinated industry efforts to contain the KelpDAO exploit fallout have helped DeFi tokens hold up better than the broader market, with the CoinDesk DeFi Select Index gaining 0.5% over 24 hours. Bitcoin's hourly price swings since late March show that it has broken out of an ascending trendline, and prices are trading at a discount to their 50- and 200-hour averages, indicating uptrend exhaustion and potential for a deeper price pullback.