The current bitcoin price of $75,763.45 has yet to reach its lowest point, and achieving a new all-time high this year is unlikely, claims Michael Terpin, also known as the 'Crypto Godfather' and author of Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich. Terpin believes the price needs to break above $100,000 with no nearby support to be considered a bull market, and he predicts the bottom will occur at $57,000 in October.
Despite a double-digit gain in April, Terpin asserts that the bitcoin fall is far from over. As the founder of Transform Group, one of the first PR firms for blockchain companies, and other ventures like CoinAgenda and BitAngels, Terpin's bearish outlook for this cycle contrasts with the consensus among analysts who think the February low of $60,000 marked the end of the bear market and the start of a bull run. Most analysts supporting a bull run cite increased inflows into U.S.-listed spot ETFs and bitcoin's resilience during the Iran conflict and oil price spike. In a CoinDesk interview, Terpin mentioned that during Asian trading hours on Monday, the $80,000 psychological barrier was strongly rejected due to the high oil price, a typical occurrence at this stage of the bitcoin cycle where lower highs are rejected until the final capitulation.
Market analyst Jason Fernandes agrees with Terpin that the bottom has not yet been seen but disagrees with the timeline, suggesting the market may not have fully capitulated. Historically, durable bottoms coincide with the exhaustion of speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, which Fernandes believes has not happened yet. Terpin insists that fundamentals point towards a bottom around $57,000, the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, predicting this will occur in October.
Fernandes notes that broader macro conditions could continue to impact risk assets like bitcoin, with liquidity conditions remaining tight and risk assets adjusting to a higher-for-longer rate environment. Until there is a decisive shift in monetary policy or a true washout event in crypto markets, downside volatility is likely. Terpin also stated that bitcoin will not achieve an all-time high this year, a view disputed by crypto market analyst Mati Greenspan, who thinks the 'Crypto Godfather's' take is overly bearish given the level of institutional adoption and growing interest.
Fernandes agrees that market sentiment has not yet reached the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting another leg down may be needed before a sustainable base is formed. The $100,000 level serves more as a psychological signal than a strict technical threshold, with a true bull market defined by structural higher highs and strong capital inflows.