The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a unique scenario where Bitcoin is stagnant, while other assets are experiencing fluctuations. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin reached nearly $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability is notable, especially as Brent crude oil prices surpassed $111 per barrel following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has instructed his aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In response to the situation, Iran has stated that the country is in a state of collapse, according to Trump's claims on Truth Social.
Tehran has indicated that it might accept an interim deal to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Other major cryptocurrencies, such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB, have experienced significant losses, with declines of 2.6%, 3.8%, 3.2%, and 2.3%, respectively. In contrast, Dogecoin has seen a 5.5% increase over the week, making it the only top-10 token outside stablecoins to experience gains. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a common occurrence when macroeconomic stress arises and capital flows into the largest asset.
Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, attributes Bitcoin's relative calm to a shift in market structure. According to Ebtikar, the supply overhang has been depleted, and sellers who were previously spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited the market, resulting in a much thinner sell-side. Ebtikar believes that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than people think, and its sensitivity is primarily a function of wider volatility. With the current quieter trading range, there is no immediate rush for the exits.
From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, where the upward range that has held since late March breaks, potentially leading to further downside. A reversal towards $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February.
The Fed's rate decision, scheduled for later on Wednesday, and the ECB's decision on Thursday, will be closely watched, along with the US equity market's performance, which sold off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure. The price of Brent crude continues to fluctuate, staying elevated near $111, and putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion holds against the next macro shock.
If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated through March and April is gone, and Bitcoin will trade based on volatility rather than headlines until something forces a fresh leg of selling.