The US-driven rally momentum in April is losing steam. The Coinbase Premium, which measures the difference in price between Coinbase and offshore exchanges, has flipped negative for the first time since early April, according to CryptoQuant data. This metric had been consistently positive from April 8 to April 22, during which time bitcoin rose from $66,000 to a local high of nearly $78,000, before peaking and rolling over. As Coinbase is often used as a proxy for US institutional and dollar-denominated flows, a persistent negative reading suggests that American investors are paying less than the rest of the world, indicating either more aggressive selling or a lack of participation.
On-chain data paints a similar picture, with the 7-day sum of Bitcoin Realized Loss spiking to $5.97 billion on April 24 as bitcoin traded near $78,000. This realized loss, which only occurs when coins are sold below their original purchase price, suggests that sellers were likely buyers at higher prices, possibly between $80,000 and $95,000 in late 2025 and early 2026, using the April bounce as an exit opportunity rather than a reentry point.
The combination of these two datasets indicates that US institutional buyers are slowing their purchases through Coinbase, while holders are increasing their selling activity. With bitcoin recently trading around $76,000, traders are watching to see if the Realized Loss metric will continue to decline as the underwater supply is worked through, with the reading already decreasing from its April 24 peak to $4.7 billion by April 28, suggesting a thinning of the seller cohort.