The highly anticipated SpaceX IPO, expected to raise $75 billion, is set to make history as one of the largest stock-market debuts ever. However, this massive capital influx, combined with the upcoming listings of OpenAI and Anthropic, may have a significant impact on the liquidity of bitcoin and crypto. With a combined capital raise of over $240 billion from June through year-end, these IPOs may pull liquidity away from crypto, potentially leading to a decline in value.
The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, serves as a point of concern. As institutional milestones often mark tops rather than starting lines, the capital that chases these milestones may be the same capital that was previously holding up the asset. The 30% retail allocation in the SpaceX IPO, roughly $22 billion, may also divert funds away from crypto.
Furthermore, SpaceX's material bitcoin position, disclosed under the new fair-value accounting rules, adds another layer of complexity to the situation. The testable signal going forward will be whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription. A bitcoin rally that extends through the roadshow may suggest that the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows, but the outcome remains uncertain.