The price of bitcoin has not yet reached its lowest point and is unlikely to achieve a new all-time high this year, according to Michael Terpin, an early bitcoin adopter and author of the book 'Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich'. Terpin believes that for a bull market to commence, the price of bitcoin must first break above $100,000, but notes that no such support has materialized so far.
He anticipates that the bottom of the market will be reached at $57,000 by October, despite the cryptocurrency's double-digit gains in April. Terpin's pessimistic outlook contrasts with the views of most analysts, who think the bear market ended in February when the price dropped to around $60,000.
Many of these analysts point to the renewed investment in U.S.-listed spot ETFs and bitcoin's resilience during the Iran conflict and oil price spike as evidence of an impending bull run. However, Terpin argues that the rejection of the $80,000 psychological barrier during Asian trading hours is typical of this stage in the bitcoin cycle, where lower highs are consistently rejected until the final capitulation. Market analyst Jason Fernandes agrees with Terpin that the bottom has not been reached, but disagrees with the timeline, suggesting that the market may not have fully capitulated. Fernandes believes that historically, durable bottoms are often accompanied by a clear exhaustion of speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, which has not occurred yet.
Terpin insists that the fundamentals suggest a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, which indicates a price of around $57,000. He predicts this will happen in October, around the same time last year when bitcoin first dropped below $100,000, followed by the October 10 crash, which saw $19 billion in leveraged positions wiped out.
Fernandes notes that broader macro conditions could continue to negatively impact risk assets, including bitcoin, due to tight liquidity conditions and a higher-for-longer rate environment. Terpin also claims that bitcoin will not achieve a new all-time high this year, a view disputed by crypto market analyst Mati Greenspan, who thinks the 'Crypto Godfather' is being overly bearish. Greenspan believes that given the level of institutional adoption and growing interest, a new all-time high is still possible this year. Fernandes also argues that market sentiment has not yet reached the levels of extreme pessimism typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting that another leg down may be needed before a sustainable base is formed.