The US-driven rally in April is losing momentum. The Coinbase Premium, which measures the difference between the price on Coinbase, primarily used by US customers, and offshore exchanges, has turned negative for the first time since early April, according to CryptoQuant data.
This metric had been consistently positive from April 8 to April 22, during which time bitcoin rose from $66,000 to a local high of nearly $78,000, before peaking and declining. As Coinbase is often used as a proxy for US institutional and dollar-denominated flows, a persistent negative reading suggests that American investors are paying less than the rest of the world, either due to more aggressive selling or reduced participation. On-chain data supports this narrative, with the 7-day sum of Bitcoin Realized Loss, which tracks the total dollar value of coins sold at a loss, spiking to $5.97 billion on April 24 as bitcoin traded near $78,000.
This indicates that sellers were likely buyers at higher prices, with CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. suggesting that this cohort probably entered the market between $80,000 and $95,000 in late 2025 and early 2026, using the April bounce as an exit opportunity rather than reentering.
The combination of these datasets points to a slowdown in US institutional buying through Coinbase, coinciding with increased selling activity by holders. With bitcoin recently trading around $76,000, traders are watching to see if the Realized Loss metric continues to decline as the underwater supply is cleared, with the reading already dropping to $4.7 billion by April 28, indicating a potential thinning of the seller cohort.