Bitcoin has maintained its position above $75,000, following a notable surge to its highest level since early February. The cryptocurrency is poised for its strongest monthly gain in a year, with a 13.6% increase in April, according to CoinGlass data.
This rebound comes after a challenging period, marked by the longest losing streak in crypto markets since 2018, with consecutive monthly declines from October to February. The improvement in the broader macroeconomic landscape, including a strong recovery in US equities, has contributed to this turnaround.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have regained record highs after briefly entering correction territory earlier in the year. A significant factor driving this move is the substantial growth in Tether's USDT, the largest stablecoin, which has expanded its supply to nearly $150 billion, adding approximately $5 billion over the past two weeks. This surge in stablecoin supply is crucial, as it acts as liquidity in crypto markets, signaling capital flow into the crypto market and potentially driving up asset prices. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding the Iran war, which have kept oil prices elevated, markets appear to be looking beyond these concerns.
According to Jasper de Maere, an OTC trader at Wintermute, "equities and crypto markets seem to have stopped caring about intricate headlines on the conflict's direction," indicating a level of fatigue and potential complacency. Strong corporate earnings and resilient equity markets are offsetting concerns about higher energy costs and geopolitical risks.
The ability of bitcoin to break through the $79,000 level will depend on the drivers of the move and the participants involved. A breakout backed by sustained institutional demand could mark a more durable shift, while a move driven primarily by short covering may fade once momentum cools.
The upcoming April Fed meeting will be a crucial test for the current rally, and if ETF inflows continue, $79,000 could transition from resistance to support, paving the way for a higher trading range.