The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a mix of movements, with Bitcoin remaining relatively stable. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability occurred despite Brent crude oil surpassing $111 per barrel, prompted by a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for a prolonged US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
In response to the situation, Iran has described the country as being in a "State of Collapse," according to Trump's statement on Truth Social. Tehran, however, has indicated a willingness to consider an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Other major cryptocurrencies have seen significant losses, with Ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, Solana declining 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shedding 2.3% to $625.
The exception is dogecoin, which has risen 5.5% to $0.1016 over the week, making it the only top-10 token outside stablecoins to experience gains over the past seven days. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a trend that often occurs when macroeconomic stress leads to capital flowing into the largest asset. According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative calmness is indicative of a shift in market structure.
Ebtikar stated, "The supply overhang has finally been absorbed, and the sellers who were spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited, leaving the market much thinner on the sell-side than it was just a few months ago." He added, "Bitcoin is far less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than people think. Its sensitivity is purely a function of wider volatility, and since we're currently in a quieter trading range, there's no immediate rush for the exits." From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, where a break in the upward range that has held since late March could lead to further downside potential. A reversal towards $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure intact and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February.
The Federal Reserve is set to announce its rate decision later on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank on Thursday. The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure, although Nasdaq 100 futures have clawed back 0.4% in Asian hours. Brent crude oil prices have remained elevated near $111, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion holds against the next macro shock.
If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated through March and April is gone, and Bitcoin trades on volatility rather than headlines until something forces a fresh leg of selling. If the assessment is incorrect, $75,000 may be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget could play out as expected.