Bitcoin is currently trading with a positive trend above the $75,000 threshold, a level previously identified by CoinDesk as crucial for the bulls to maintain control. However, some analysts are advising caution, noting that prices must remain above this level through Wednesday, when the US-Iran ceasefire is set to expire. According to Marex analysts, 'the market must consider two potential paths: an extension and de-escalation, or a renewed escalation and increased oil prices, which is why even with a strong BTC, the market can still experience significant volatility.' An escalation could lead to a significant increase in oil prices, potentially above the March high of $119, and cause a downturn in Asian and global equity markets. The question remains whether bitcoin will continue to show resilience, as it did during the March conflict when it remained relatively stable around $70,000.
As of now, no Iranian delegation has departed for talks in Pakistan, and on Monday, President Donald Trump warned of a major escalation if the ceasefire ends without a deal. Also, on Tuesday, Kevin Warsh's nomination hearing for Federal Reserve chair is scheduled, and his statements could significantly impact the markets, particularly if they reinforce expectations of policy easing, as noted by QCP Capital. In the broader market, major cryptocurrencies such as ether, solana, and XRP have seen less than a 2% increase over the past 24 hours, underperforming bitcoin, while smaller tokens like XLM and TON have risen by more than 5% each. The CoinDesk Memecoin Index has also seen an increase of over 3%.
Notably, the DeFi Select Index added 2%, despite the industry-wide fallout from the KelpDAO hack over the weekend, which saw the attacker drain rsETH, a widely used liquid restaking token as collateral on several DeFi platforms. Aave, a decentralized lender, has taken the biggest hit, with the total value of crypto assets locked on its platform falling to $16 billion, a decline of nearly $10 billion since before the hack.
Aave's native token, AAVE, has declined 18% to $93 since the hack, while open interest in futures tied to the token hit a record high, pointing to potential increased volatility ahead.