A historic IPO is on the horizon, with SpaceX's potential $75 billion offering set to make a significant impact on the market. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $1.75 trillion valuation.
If successful, this would be the largest stock-market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. This massive capital raise, combined with the upcoming listings of OpenAI and Anthropic, could pull in over $240 billion from June to the end of the year, exceeding the total amount raised by all venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. The implications for crypto are significant, as it shares the same liquidity pool as tech and AI equities. With bitcoin and other majors closely correlated to the Nasdaq and S&P 500, a rotation out of equities and into these IPOs could lead to a decline in crypto prices.
The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, serves as a warning that institutional milestones can often signal tops rather than new beginnings. As the SpaceX IPO approaches, the 30% retail allocation and the company's significant bitcoin holdings will be closely watched for their potential impact on crypto flows. The testable signal will be whether crypto can hold up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators prepare for the SpaceX subscription.