Bitcoin is currently trading at $75,959.78, down 3% in morning Asian trading, hovering near $77,000 as the market prepares for a week filled with significant macroeconomic events. The move seems to be driven by caution rather than a shift in market sentiment.
According to Enflux, a Singapore-based market maker, traders are hesitant to push bitcoin prices higher ahead of the upcoming rate decision and data releases, including GDP, PCE inflation, and the Employment Cost Index. These releases will shape expectations for when the Fed can begin cutting rates in the second half of the year.
Oil remains a significant constraint, with Brent crude above $100, complicating the inflation outlook and making it challenging for the Fed to signal a dovish stance. Enflux notes that the market is operating under two competing assumptions: that geopolitical tensions will eventually ease, but not quickly enough to influence near-term policy. This combination has effectively ruled out rate cuts for June and created an ambiguous backdrop for risk assets. As a result, bitcoin has struggled to break above key technical levels, trading roughly 4% below its short-term holder cost basis near $80,700.
A decisive move above this level would likely require a clear signal from the Fed that oil-driven inflation is temporary. Meanwhile, a less visible force, the slowdown in AI demand, may also impact bitcoin's next moves.
The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI has missed key revenue targets, raising questions about the pace of AI growth. Listed BTC mining companies have taken on significant debt to pivot to hosting AI data centers, a venture believed to be more profitable than mining. A slowdown in this pivot could slow selling, but the timing is uncertain, and any relief from slower miner selling would come later.
For now, this keeps bitcoin trading in a narrow band, waiting for a clearer signal.