The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a mixed trend, with Bitcoin holding steady just below $77,000 on Wednesday during Asian trading hours, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability is notable as Brent crude oil prices have pushed past $111 per barrel following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In response to the escalating situation, Iran has described its current state as one of "collapse," according to a statement by Trump on Truth Social. Tehran, however, has indicated a willingness to consider an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports.
Other major cryptocurrencies have experienced more significant losses, with Ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310 over the week, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, Solana declining 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shedding 2.3% to $625. The exception is dogecoin, which has seen a 5.5% increase to $0.1016 over the week, making it the only top-10 token outside stablecoins to show gains over the past seven days. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a trend that often emerges during periods of macroeconomic stress when capital flows into the largest asset. According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, the relative calm in the Bitcoin market suggests a shift in market structure.
Ebtikar noted that the supply overhang has been depleted, and sellers who were previously spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited the market, resulting in a thinner sell-side. He also stated that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than commonly perceived, with its sensitivity primarily driven by broader volatility.
Given the current quieter trading range, there is no immediate pressure for a sell-off. From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, below which the upward range that has held since late March could break, potentially leading to further downside.
Conversely, a reversal towards $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure intact and set the stage for a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February. The Federal Reserve is set to announce its rate decision later on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank's decision on Thursday. The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the returns on artificial intelligence capital expenditure, although Nasdaq 100 futures have recovered 0.4% in Asian hours.
Brent crude prices continue to fluctuate, staying elevated near $111 following the blockade reports, which may put renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is no longer a factor, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines until a new selling pressure emerges. However, if the assessment is incorrect, the $75,000 level may be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget could unfold as predicted.