Despite Bitcoin's recent 15% gain this month, some industry experts remain unconvinced that the cryptocurrency has escaped the bear market it entered in October, given it still lags 40% behind its record high. Some forecasters predict a potential drop to $40,000, a 70% decline from its all-time high, with analyst James Check deeming such a move statistically extraordinary, albeit not impossible.
Check references the Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index, which ranks the cryptocurrency's price on a historical percentile basis, indicating that a $40,000 price point would be a '0.4 event', falling in the 0.4th percentile of all daily closes, below any meaningful deviation across major anchors. This would be equivalent to Bitcoin trading below $2 in 2011 on a relative basis, with Check noting that while no event has zero probability in markets, this outcome would be near-unprecedented.