The price of bitcoin has not yet reached its lowest point and is unlikely to achieve a new all-time high this year, according to Michael Terpin, an early investor in bitcoin and author of Bitcoin Supercycle. Terpin believes that before a bull market can begin, the price of bitcoin must break above $100,000, but notes that no such support has been seen so far.
Despite a double-digit gain in April, Terpin asserts that the bitcoin market is still in a downturn. Terpin, often referred to as the 'crypto Godfather', has been involved in the industry since 2013 and has founded several ventures, including Transform Group, a PR firm focused on blockchain companies, and BitAngels, a crypto angel investor group. His bearish outlook contrasts with the views of many analysts, who believe that the low point in February marked the end of the bear market and the beginning of a new bull run.
Most of these analysts point to renewed inflows into US-listed spot ETFs and the token's resilience during the Iran conflict and oil price spike as evidence of their outlook. In an interview, Terpin stated that the psychological barrier of $80,000 was strongly rejected during Asian trading hours, which he sees as typical at this stage of the bitcoin cycle.
Market analyst Jason Fernandes agrees with Terpin that the bottom has not yet been seen, but disagrees with the timeline, arguing that the market may not have fully capitulated. Terpin insists that the fundamentals point to a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, which he believes will be around $57,000 in October. Fernandes notes that broader macro conditions could continue to weigh on risk assets, including bitcoin, and that liquidity conditions remain tight.
The author and entrepreneur also predicts that bitcoin will not see an all-time high this year, a view disagreed with by crypto market analyst Mati Greenspan, who believes that the level of institutional adoption and growing interest makes a new all-time high plausible. AdLunam's Fernandes also notes that market sentiment has not yet reached the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting that the market may still need one more leg down before a sustainable base is formed.