A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering expected in June, which could impact the crypto market as it competes for the same liquidity. SpaceX's planned $75 billion capital raise, valued at $1.75 trillion, would surpass Saudi Aramco's 2019 record, making it the largest stock market debut in history. Alongside OpenAI and Anthropic, these companies are set to raise over $240 billion from June to the end of the year, a figure that exceeds the total of all venture-backed US IPOs since 2000.
This massive capital pull may trigger a rotation out of equities, including crypto, as investors allocate funds to these new listings. Crypto assets like bitcoin and ether have shown a tightening correlation with tech and AI equities, and the outflow of speculative capital from equities to IPOs could negatively impact crypto prices.
The historical precedent of Coinbase's listing in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, serves as a warning that institutional milestones can signal market tops rather than new beginnings. The 30% retail allocation of SpaceX's IPO, approximately $22 billion, may divert funds from crypto, while the company's significant bitcoin holdings, worth around $600 million, make its listing the first public-market debut of a company with a material disclosed bitcoin position. The performance of crypto during the roadshow window in May and June will be a testable signal of whether it can decouple from broader risk-on flows.