The general consensus among retail investors is that bitcoin's price, currently at $76,690.82, is poised to exceed $90,000 in the near future, potentially turning this year's losses into gains. However, it remains uncertain whether the market will follow this trend.
Analytics firm Santiment analyzed numerous social media posts across various platforms, including X, Reddit, and Telegram, and found that over the past week, the majority of predictions have been in favor of bitcoin's price surpassing $90,000. Mentions of the $50,000-$59,000 range are being dismissed as mere fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
The crowd's expectation is that the slow recovery from the February low of around $60,000 will continue into May. This optimism can be attributed to the resurgence of flows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and bitcoin's resilience in the face of recent geopolitical conflicts, oil price surges, and DeFi hacks. According to Santiment, this widespread bullish sentiment could be a reason to be cautious, as overly optimistic social media predictions often precede a bearish market performance.
In fact, the firm suggests that price predictions can be a reliable indicator of the opposite outcome. This concept is echoed by traditional market contrarian traders, who use sentiment gauges like the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey and the CNN Fear & Greed Index to inform their decisions. Notably, bitcoin's recovery rally has already experienced a setback this week, with prices retreating to $77,000 from highs above $79,000 on Monday. It remains to be seen whether this is a temporary pause or the beginning of a broader reversal.