The current bitcoin price of $76,622.70 has not yet reached its lowest point, and achieving a new all-time high this year is improbable, according to Michael Terpin, also known as the 'Crypto Godfather' and author of Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich. Terpin believes the price must break above $100,000 with no nearby support to be considered a bull market, and he predicts the bottom will be at $57,000 by October.
Despite a double-digit gain in April, Terpin asserts that the bitcoin market is still experiencing a downturn. His involvement in the industry dates back to 2013, and he has founded several ventures, including Transform Group, CoinAgenda, and BitAngels. Terpin's bearish outlook contrasts with the consensus among analysts that the low of $60,000 in February marked the end of the bear market and the beginning of a new bull run. Many analysts cited increased investment in U.S.-listed spot ETFs and bitcoin's resilience during the Iran conflict and oil price surge as reasons for their optimistic outlook.
In an interview, Terpin stated that the psychological barrier of $80,000 was strongly rejected during Asian trading hours, which he considers typical for this stage of the bitcoin cycle. Market analyst Jason Fernandes agrees with Terpin that the bottom has not been reached but disagrees with the timeline, suggesting that the market may not have fully capitulated. Fernandes believes that historically, durable bottoms coincide with the exhaustion of speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, which has not yet occurred.
Terpin insists that the fundamentals indicate a bottom around $57,000, which he predicts will happen in October. Fernandes notes that broader macro conditions could continue to impact risk assets, including bitcoin, due to tight liquidity conditions and a higher-for-longer rate environment.
The 'Crypto Godfather' also stated that bitcoin will not achieve an all-time high this year, a view disputed by crypto market analyst Mati Greenspan, who thinks there is still room for growth given institutional adoption and interest. AdLunam's Fernandes believes market sentiment has not yet reached the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting that another downturn may be necessary before a sustainable base is formed.