The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a unique phenomenon where Bitcoin is holding steady despite fluctuations in other assets. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability persisted even as Brent crude oil prices exceeded $111 per barrel, sparked by a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for a prolonged US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has described its current state as one of 'collapse,' according to Trump's statements on Truth Social on Tuesday.
In response, Tehran has indicated a willingness to consider an interim deal to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Other major cryptocurrencies experienced declines, with Ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310 over the week, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, Solana losing 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shedding 2.3% to $625. The exception was Dogecoin, which saw a 5.5% increase to $0.1016 over the week, making it the only top-10 token outside stablecoins to exhibit growth over the seven-day period. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a trend often observed during periods of macroeconomic stress when capital flows into the largest asset.
Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, noted in a commentary that Bitcoin's relative calmness suggests a shift in market structure. "The oversupply has been absorbed, and sellers who were previously spooked by macro shifts or quantum concerns have exited the market, leaving it much thinner on the sell-side than it was just a few months ago," Ebtikar stated in an email to CoinDesk. "Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policies than commonly perceived. Its sensitivity is primarily a function of broader market volatility, and since we are currently in a quieter trading range, there is no immediate pressure to exit," Ebtikar added.
From a technical standpoint, the levels are more defined. Analysts at Bitget identified $75,000 as the critical line where the upward range that has held since late March would break, potentially leading to further downside with a clean loss. A reversal towards $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure intact and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin in every attempt since February.
The Fed is set to announce its rate decision later on Wednesday, followed by the ECB on Thursday. The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure, with Nasdaq 100 futures recovering 0.4% in Asian hours. Brent crude prices continued to fluctuate between gains and losses but remained elevated near $111 on the blockade reports, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions.
Traders may be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion holds against the next macro shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated through March and April is gone, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines until something triggers a fresh wave of selling.
If the assessment is incorrect, $75,000 will be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget will play out as expected.