As bitcoin appeared to gain momentum towards breaking through the $80,000 barrier, macroeconomic uncertainty has reemerged as a significant obstacle. A notable development came from the Pentagon, which informed U.S. lawmakers in a classified briefing that clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz could take at least six months and will only commence after the U.S.-Iran conflict ends. The briefing also cautioned that gasoline and oil prices may remain high until the midterm elections, according to the Washington Post.
Persistently high energy costs could keep inflation elevated, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates and creating a negative environment for risk assets. Bitcoin is particularly sensitive to interest rates and global liquidity conditions rather than real economic activity. Rising costs for essentials like fuel and food could also reduce investors' willingness to allocate capital to speculative assets.
These risks are already evident in markets, with WTI crude climbing to around $95 from $79 and government bond yields rising across major economies. Oil prices are increasing alongside yields and widening volatility spreads, signaling tighter financial conditions and growing market risks, according to Michael Kramer, founder and CEO of Mott Capital Management. U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs continue to show sustained demand, but some analysts are urging caution, arguing that the rally lacks broad-based support in the spot market. The recent Bitcoin price increase is driven by demand in the perpetual futures market, while spot demand is still contracting.
The market capitalization of USDT has hit a record high, and speculation in non-serious tokens is reaching a fever pitch. The ratio between bitcoin's price and gold has been steadily rising, topping the 100-day average, and the 50-day average could soon move above the 100-day average, confirming a bullish crossover.