A historic stock market debut is approaching, and the crypto market is bracing for potential disruption. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. The listing is expected to occur in June, with Polymarket traders assigning a 65% probability to this timeline.
SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with valuations nearing $1 trillion and $60 billion, respectively. The combined capital raised by these three companies could exceed $240 billion from June to year-end, a figure that surpasses every venture-backed US IPO since 2000. This massive influx of capital could lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially affecting the crypto market.
Crypto assets, including bitcoin and ether, have been trading with increasing correlation to the Nasdaq and S&P 500, and a significant portion of the capital that would otherwise be invested in crypto may be diverted to these IPOs. The historical parallel with Coinbase's listing in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern.
Institutional milestones often mark the top of a cycle rather than the beginning, as the capital that chases these milestones is the same capital that was previously supporting the asset. SpaceX's listing has two key features that connect directly to crypto flows: a 30% retail allocation, which could divert funds away from crypto, and the company's significant bitcoin holdings, worth roughly $600 million. The testable signal going forward is whether crypto can hold up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to decline as allocators prepare for the SpaceX subscription. A bitcoin rally that extends through the roadshow suggests that the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows.