The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a mixed trend, with Bitcoin showing minimal movement despite significant fluctuations in other assets. On Wednesday, Bitcoin's price hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability is notable, especially as Brent crude oil prices exceeded $111 per barrel following reports of an extended US naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.
President Donald Trump has allegedly instructed his aides to prepare for this blockade, prompting a response from Iran, which claims to be in a 'State of Collapse.' Tehran has suggested it might accept an interim deal to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade on Iranian ports. In contrast to Bitcoin's stability, other major cryptocurrencies such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB have experienced significant losses, with declines ranging from 2.3% to 3.8% over the week. However, Dogecoin bucked this trend, rising 5.5% to $0.1016. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is slowly increasing, a common occurrence during times of macroeconomic stress when investors turn to the largest asset.
According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative calmness may indicate a shift in market structure. Ebtikar believes that the supply overhang has been depleted and that sellers who were previously spooked by macroeconomic shifts or quantum fears have already exited the market, resulting in a thinner sell-side.
He also notes that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise and central bank policies than widely perceived, with its sensitivity being primarily driven by broader market volatility. With the current trading range being relatively quiet, there is no immediate pressure for investors to exit the market. From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, below which the upward range that has held since late March could break, potentially leading to further downside.
Conversely, a reversal towards $80,000 would maintain the rally structure and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin since February. The upcoming Fed rate decision, followed by the ECB's decision, and the US equity market's recent sell-off due to skepticism about artificial intelligence capital expenditure, may influence the market's direction. The price of Brent crude oil has also been volatile, staying elevated near $111 and putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions.
Traders will be watching whether Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macroeconomic shock, and if Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is gone, leaving Bitcoin to trade based on volatility rather than headlines.