A historic stock market debut is on the horizon, with SpaceX's initial public offering anticipated to take place in June, and its impact on the crypto market is a topic of interest. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. The likelihood of a June listing is estimated at 65% by Polymarket traders, with a 53% chance that the first-day closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion.
SpaceX is not alone in its plans, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also preparing for listings, with the combined capital raise of the three companies potentially exceeding $240 billion from June to the end of the year. This amount surpasses the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000, according to PitchBook estimates. The implications of this massive capital pull are significant, and some experts, such as Alex Good, founder of crypto AI project Post Fiat, predict a bearish outlook for equities following the SpaceX IPO. The concentration of these large listings within a short period could lead to a rotation of capital, affecting not only the stock market but also the crypto space.
Crypto assets, including bitcoin and ether, have been trading with increasing correlation to the Nasdaq and S&P 500, and the outflow of speculative capital from equities to IPO allocations could impact the crypto market. The historical precedent of Coinbase's listing in April 2021, which coincided with the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, serves as a cautionary tale.
The lesson learned from this experience is that institutional milestones often mark the top of a cycle rather than the beginning. Two key aspects of the SpaceX listing are noteworthy: the 30% retail allocation, which could divert funds away from crypto assets, and the company's disclosed bitcoin holdings, making it the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin position under the new fair-value accounting rules.
The performance of crypto assets during the roadshow window in May and June will be a testable signal, indicating whether the market has decoupled from broader risk-on flows or remains vulnerable to the impact of the SpaceX IPO.