Despite Bitcoin's recent 15% gain this month, reaching $77,652.74, some experts remain unconvinced that the cryptocurrency has escaped the bear market that began in October, given it still lags 40% behind its record high. Some forecasters predict a potential drop to $40,000, a 70% decline from its all-time peak. Bitcoin analyst James Check considers such a move unlikely, stating it would be statistically remarkable.
Check references the Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index, which combines key valuation metrics, including the 200-week moving average and realized price, to rank bitcoin's price historically. At $40,000, bitcoin would register as a 0.4th percentile event, indicating an extraordinary deviation. Check notes this would be equivalent to bitcoin trading below $2 in 2011 on a relative basis, stressing that while no market event has zero probability, a $40,000 price point would be nearly unprecedented.