A historic stock market debut is imminent, and its impact on the crypto market is being closely watched. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. The listing is expected to take place in June, with Polymarket traders assigning a 65% probability to this timeline and a 53% chance that the first-day closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion. SpaceX is not alone in its pursuit of a public listing, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the latter potentially raising over $60 billion in October. The combined total of these IPOs could exceed $240 billion, a figure that surpasses every venture-backed US IPO since 2000, according to PitchBook estimates.
This massive influx of capital could lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially affecting the crypto market. Crypto assets, including bitcoin, are closely tied to the same risk-on liquidity pool that funds tech and AI equities, and a shift in investor sentiment could have significant implications. The historical parallel with Coinbase's listing in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern.
Institutional milestones often mark tops rather than starting lines, as the capital that chases these milestones is the same capital that was previously holding up the asset. The SpaceX listing has two key features that connect directly to crypto flows: a 30% retail allocation, which could divert funds away from crypto investments, and the company's significant bitcoin holdings, worth roughly $600 million.
The impact of the SpaceX IPO on the crypto market will be closely watched, particularly during the roadshow window in May and June. If crypto holds up during this period, it could suggest that the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows.
However, if crypto begins to drift lower, it may indicate that allocators are freeing up room for the SpaceX subscription, potentially disrupting the crypto market.