The price of bitcoin has fallen on Tuesday, failing to maintain its position above $79,000 for the third time in eight sessions, thus establishing this level as the defining factor in its current range. On Tuesday morning, bitcoin was trading at $76,923, representing a 2.4% decrease over the past 24 hours, after it reached $79,399 on Monday and subsequently reversed its course throughout the day.
Other major cryptocurrencies, including ether, which fell 3.7% to $2,290, XRP, which slipped 3.2% to $1.39, solana, which dropped 3.9% to $84.10, and BNB, which declined 1.8% to $625, also experienced significant losses. The only exceptions among the top 10 tokens were TRON and DOGE. The surge in Brent crude, which rose 1% to above $109 per barrel, extending its rally to a seventh day, was attributed to the failure of Iran's interim deal proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The White House stated that U.S. officials were discussing the latest Iranian proposal while maintaining their 'red lines' on any deal to end the eight-week war. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index remained relatively unchanged, with Japanese stocks receiving support from the Bank of Japan's decision to keep its policy unchanged. The yen strengthened 0.3% to around 159 per dollar.
Market analysts are presenting two differing views on the bitcoin market. Mike Novogratz of Galaxy Digital noted that U.S. retail investors have returned to the market, and the combination of retail demand, institutional capital, and limited supply creates a strong foundation for further upside.
According to Santiment data, whales have accumulated over 40,000 BTC in the past two weeks, and the firm has observed a sharp shift in sentiment from fear to fear of missing out. On the other hand, analysis firm CryptoQuant takes a more cautious view, with founder Ki Young-Ju stating that bitcoin's push above $79,000 was primarily driven by a short squeeze in the derivatives market rather than sustained spot demand. Young-Ju warned that large-scale short covering leaves the market vulnerable to a reversal once the squeeze exhausts.
Funding rates on perpetual futures across major exchanges remain negative on a 7-day basis, indicating that shorts are still paying longs to hold positions, a pattern that historically precedes both squeezes and the unwinding of squeezes. These two views are not mutually exclusive, as spot demand from retail and institutions can return at the same time as the rally toward $79,000 was front-loaded by short covering. The key test is whether the next attempt at this level brings fresh spot bids or runs out of shorts to squeeze.
Corporate accumulation continues to grow, with Strategy buying $3.9 billion of bitcoin in April, the firm's largest monthly accumulation in a year. Japanese company Metaplanet announced a $50 million bond issuance to finance new bitcoin purchases, the latest in a series of yen-denominated debt deals used to build one of the largest corporate bitcoin treasuries outside the U.S. The week's catalysts are expected to arrive on Wednesday and Thursday, with the Federal Reserve announcing its policy decision on Wednesday and megacap tech earnings from major companies representing roughly a quarter of the S&P 500's market capitalization. Either the Fed or a strong earnings beat could be the catalyst to push bitcoin past $80,000; without one, the rejection from this level starts to define the upper end of the range rather than precede a breakout.