Despite its current price of $77,593.87, bitcoin has not yet reached its lowest point and is unlikely to achieve a new all-time high this year, according to Michael Terpin, a veteran bitcoin investor and author of Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich. Terpin, often referred to as the 'Crypto Godfather' due to his involvement in the industry since 2013, believes the price must drop to $57,000 by October before it can start ascending. This prediction is at odds with the views of many analysts, who think the February low of around $60,000 marked the end of the bear market and the beginning of a new bull run. Terpin's bearish outlook is based on his analysis of the bitcoin cycle, and he thinks the psychological barrier of $80,000 was strongly rejected during Asian trading hours on Monday, which is typical at this stage of the cycle.
Market analyst Jason Fernandes agrees that the bottom has not yet been seen but disagrees with Terpin's timeline, arguing that the market may not have fully capitulated yet. Fernandes believes that historically, durable bottoms tend to coincide with a clear exhaustion of both speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, and the market is not yet at that point. Terpin insists that the fundamentals point to a bottom of around $57,000, which is the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom. He predicts this will happen in October, around the same time last year when BTC first dipped below $100,000.
Fernandes notes that broader macro conditions could continue to weigh on risk assets, including bitcoin, due to tight liquidity conditions and a higher-for-longer rate environment. Terpin also thinks that bitcoin will not see an all-time high this year, a view disputed by crypto market analyst Mati Greenspan, who thinks the 'Crypto Godfather' is being overly bearish.
Greenspan believes that given the level of institutional adoption and growing interest, a new all-time high is certainly plausible this year. Fernandes also thinks that market sentiment has not yet reached the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms, which could mean one more leg down before a sustainable base is formed.