The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a unique scenario where Bitcoin is stagnant, while other assets are experiencing fluctuations. On Wednesday, during Asian hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week, as it maintained a narrow range despite Brent crude exceeding $111 per barrel. This surge in oil prices was triggered by a Wall Street Journal report stating that President Donald Trump had instructed his aides to prepare for a prolonged US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In response to the situation, Iran has claimed to be in a 'State of Collapse,' according to Trump's statement on Truth Social, while Tehran has indicated its willingness to accept an interim deal to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports.
The prices of other major cryptocurrencies, including Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB, have dropped by 2.6%, 3.8%, 3.2%, and 2.3%, respectively, over the week. However, dogecoin has experienced a 5.5% increase, making it the only top-10 token, excluding stablecoins, to exhibit growth over the past seven days.
As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a trend that often occurs when macroeconomic stress leads to capital flowing into the largest asset. According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative stability is indicative of a shift in market structure.
Ebtikar noted that the supply overhang has been depleted, and sellers who were previously spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited the market, resulting in a thinner sell-side. He also stated that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than commonly perceived, and its sensitivity is primarily driven by wider volatility. With the current trading range being relatively quiet, there is no immediate pressure to exit the market. From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, below which the upward range that has held since late March would break, potentially leading to further downside.
A reversal towards $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure intact and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February. The Fed is scheduled to announce its rate decision later on Wednesday, followed by the ECB on Thursday. The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the benefits of artificial intelligence capital expenditure, although Nasdaq 100 futures have rebounded by 0.4% in Asian hours.
Brent crude prices have fluctuated between gains and losses but remain elevated near $111, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock.
If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is no longer present, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines until a new selling wave is triggered. Conversely, if the assessment is incorrect, the $75,000 level may be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget may unfold as predicted.