A historic stock market debut is approaching, and it may have a significant impact on the crypto market. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
This would make it the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. SpaceX is not the only company planning to go public, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also expected to list, potentially raising over $60 billion. The combined capital raise of these companies could exceed $240 billion from June to the end of the year, which is more than the total amount raised by all venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. This massive influx of capital could lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially affecting the crypto market.
Bitcoin, ether, and other major cryptocurrencies have traded in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 in recent cycles, and a significant allocation of capital to these IPOs could lead to a decrease in liquidity for crypto assets. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a cause for concern.
The 30% retail allocation of SpaceX's IPO, roughly $22 billion, is also noteworthy, as it could divert funds away from crypto assets. Additionally, SpaceX's holding of 8,285 BTC, worth approximately $600 million, makes its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin position disclosed under the new fair-value accounting rules. The impact of this IPO on the crypto market will be closely watched, and the testable signal will be whether crypto assets can hold up during the roadshow window in May and June or begin to decline as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.