Bitcoin's Uptrend Faces Challenge from Pentagon's Inflation Warning

Bitcoin's apparent momentum towards breaking through the $80,000 barrier has been hindered by renewed macroeconomic uncertainty. A classified briefing by the Pentagon to US lawmakers revealed that clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil passage, may take at least six months and will only commence after the US-Iran conflict subsides. The briefing also cautioned that gasoline and oil prices might remain elevated until the midterm elections, as per the Washington Post. Prolonged high energy costs could lead to persistent inflation, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to reduce interest rates, which would negatively impact risk assets like bitcoin. The cryptocurrency is highly sensitive to interest rates and global liquidity conditions rather than real economic activity. Rising costs of essential items such as fuel and food may also deter investors from allocating capital to speculative assets. These risks are already manifesting in markets, with WTI crude prices surging to around $95 from $79 last week, and government bond yields increasing across major economies. The US 10-year yield has risen by eight basis points to 4.32% this week, while its UK counterpart has increased by 18 basis points to 4.96%. According to Michael Kramer, founder and CEO of Mott Capital Management, 'Oil prices are rising alongside yields and widening volatility spreads, signaling tighter financial conditions and increasing market risks.' Meanwhile, US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs continue to show sustained demand, with funds experiencing their fastest inflows in a month. However, some analysts urge caution, arguing that the rally lacks broad-based support in the spot market. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, noted that 'The recent Bitcoin price increase is completely driven by demand in the perpetual futures market. Meanwhile, spot demand is still contracting (although at a slower pace). The same happened in January, when Bitcoin peaked at $98K. There are risks of a correction if traders start taking profits while spot demand continues to contract.' The market capitalization of USDT, the largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, has reached a record high of $188.88 billion. Speculation in non-serious tokens is also intensifying, with overcrowding in bullish bets. For more analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today, and for a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's 'Crypto Week Ahead.'