A historic stock market debut is approaching, with SpaceX aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion, potentially drawing interest away from crypto. SpaceX, along with OpenAI and Anthropic, is set to raise over $240 billion from June through the end of the year, exceeding the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000.
This massive capital pull could affect the liquidity of bitcoin and crypto, as they are part of the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities. The correlation between crypto and equities has been tightening over the past two cycles, with bitcoin and ether trading in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500. When speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, it may also leave the crypto market, potentially causing a decline. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern.
The 30% retail allocation in SpaceX's IPO, roughly $22 billion, is three times the typical retail share, and this allocation may divert attention and funds away from crypto. Additionally, SpaceX holds 8,285 BTC, worth around $600 million, making its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin position disclosed under the new fair-value accounting rules. The impact of SpaceX's IPO on crypto will be visible in the coming weeks, as the market responds to the roadshow and allocation.