The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a mixed trend, with Bitcoin showing minimal movement. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability is notable, especially as Brent crude oil prices exceeded $111 per barrel following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump instructed his aides to prepare for a prolonged US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
In response to the situation, Iran has described its current state as one of "collapse," according to Trump's statement on Truth Social. Tehran, however, has indicated its willingness to consider an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports.
The broader cryptocurrency market saw declines, with Ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310 over the week, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, Solana losing 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shedding 2.3% to $625. Dogecoin was the exception, rising 5.5% to $0.1016 over the week, making it the only top-10 token outside stablecoins to show gains.
As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is slowly increasing, a common occurrence during periods of macroeconomic stress when capital flows into the largest asset. According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative calmness suggests a shift in market structure.
Ebtikar noted that the supply overhang has been depleted, and sellers who were previously spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited the market, resulting in a thinner sell-side. He added that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than widely perceived, and its sensitivity is primarily a function of broader volatility. With the current trading range being relatively quiet, there is no immediate pressure to sell. From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, below which the upward range that has held since late March could break, potentially leading to further downside.
If Bitcoin reverses course and moves back toward $80,000, it would maintain the rally structure and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected the cryptocurrency since February. The Federal Reserve is set to announce its rate decision later on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank on Thursday.
The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the benefits of artificial intelligence capital expenditure, although Nasdaq 100 futures rebounded 0.4% in Asian hours. Brent crude oil prices remain elevated near $111, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is gone, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines until a new selling catalyst emerges.
However, if the assessment is incorrect, Bitcoin may test the $75,000 level quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget could play out as expected.